Covid-19: Is The 5th Wave Really The Last One?

At the beginning of January, the Minister of Health Olivier Véran declared in front of the deputies that the wave of contaminations we are currently experiencing would 'perhaps be the last'. We propose you to take stock of the reasons that let us hope to see soon the end of the Covid-19 pandemic.

The virus is expected to decrease in intensity in the coming weeks

Professor Alain Fischer, who chairs the Orientation Council for Vaccine Strategy in France, said in the Express on January 15, 2022: 'a period of calm should open before us.'

If some experts are confident and optimistic about the evolution of the Covid 19 epidemic in France, it is because the omicron variant is proving less dangerous than the previous delta variant.

Still according to Alain Fischer: 'there may always be new variants, but we can hope that they will be less aggressive.'

The 5th wave has begun its decline

In addition, thanks to the efforts of millions of French people to be fully vaccinated, the 5th wave of Covid-19 is beginning to decline in France.

At least, this is the good news announced by epidemiologist Arnaud Fontanet on France Inter today.

This epidemiologist at the Pasteur Institute, member of the Scientific Council and professor at the CNAM was the guest of the great interview of France Inter today, January 17, 2022.

He then said: 'the worst-case scenario is receding, the recession has begun, the peak of Covid-19 infections has been passed these days, at least in Ile-de-France.'

We can expect the end of the 5th wave in March

According to expert projections, we can expect the end of the 5th epidemic wave in France by March.

'In March, we should reach a very good control of the current wave', said Alain Fischer.

Other specialists confirm this optimistic prediction, based on the British model. Indeed, in the United Kingdom, the epidemic wave caused by the omicron variant was followed by a rapid decline.

We can therefore expect a fairly rapid decay in France as well, although high vaccination coverage and a reduction in our social contacts remain essential for the time being to control the circulation of the virus.

The 5th wave may be the last

Health Minister Olivier Véran wanted to start 2022 with a message of hope.

On January 2, in the pages of the JDD, the minister estimated that the 5th wave we are currently experiencing in France will 'perhaps be the last'.

This estimate is undoubtedly based on the model of Denmark, a country where the chief epidemiologist Tyra Grove Krause, has been particularly optimistic. Indeed, she announced 'the end of the pandemic in 2 months'.

Because the omicron variant is more contagious but less virulent, people infected with omicron are 50-70% less likely to develop a severe form than patients affected by the delta variant. They have a shorter hospital stay and require less oxygen.

In addition, this more contagious virus has helped to strengthen herd immunity. Those vaccinated or infected with omicron have developed a strong immune response, which is reportedly effective even against other mutations of the virus.

This newly acquired immunity from the vaccine or omicron variant could mark the beginning of the end of the pandemic.

'The end of the pandemic is a very likely scenario, but it is not a certainty, said epidemiologist Yves Buisson, president of the Covid cell at the National Academy of Medicine.

Covid-19 is expected to become a seasonal virus

Although we do not yet have certainty about the future of the epidemic and the evolution of the virus, the main hypothesis advocated by experts is that Covid-19 will become a seasonal virus, similar to influenza or gastroenteritis.

By dint of being exposed to it every winter, the population will develop a form of immunity.

As with the flu, some people will end up in the hospital, but on a much smaller scale. Others will only have the classic symptoms of a seasonal virus.

According to Arnaud Fontanet, in the coming years, as we develop immunity, 'we will no longer see severe forms in such quantities that they require us to take measures to protect hospitals.'

Even if, in the coming weeks, the greatest caution remains, there is therefore reason to hope that we will soon see the end of the tunnel.